> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.trade.xyz/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.trade.xyz/legal-and-disclaimers/events-risks-and-disclaimers.md). # Events Risks and Disclaimers Principal risks of trading Events. Events markets are speculative, fully collateralized outcome contracts. Defined maximum loss does not mean low risk. A position can settle at zero, causing a total loss of the amount paid for that outcome. Fees can increase losses and reduce returns. No market price or displayed probability is a prediction, guarantee, statement of fact, or representation that an event will occur. Below is a non-exhaustive list of disclosures, disclaimers, and risks to be aware of related to Events. ## trade\[XYZ]’s role * The team deploys `txyz` Events markets by selecting validator-approved templates and supplying the values those templates permit. It selects market parameters and declared sources, publishes applicable resolution methodologies, and submits resolution actions through the outcome deployer or authorized settlement sub-deployers. These roles create operational and judgment risk, including the possibility of an ambiguous term, delayed action, inconsistent interpretation, compromised credential, or anomalous settlement submission. * HyperCore processes trading and applies settlement actions submitted by an account authorized for the applicable action. Acceptance of an authorized action confirms onchain authorization; it does not independently verify that an offchain fact is true or that the published methodology was applied correctly. trade\[XYZ] also provides a non-custodial interface, but it is not the exclusive way to access the markets. ## Market terms control * Each market is governed by its complete displayed terms and full resolution methodology. A title, ticker, card, category, short description, notification, third-party summary, or ordinary-language understanding of an event may omit conditions that determine settlement and do not govern settlement in the event of a conflict with the complete displayed terms and full resolution methodology. Similar-sounding markets, including markets on other venues, may use different sources, thresholds, deadlines, definitions, or treatment of edge cases and may therefore settle differently. * You are responsible for reviewing the exact event definition, outcome mapping, source, observation period, time zone, threshold, comparison operator, trading period, and exceptional-event treatment before trading. For a numerical market, terms such as “above,” “at least,” “more than,” and “equal to” can produce different results at the boundary. A small difference in source value, timestamp, precision, or rounding can determine whether a position receives the winning or losing payout. ## Binary settlement and total loss * A binary outcome generally settles to one for the winning side and zero for the losing side. A losing token may therefore become worthless at settlement. A contract can trade near one or zero before settlement and still resolve differently if the controlling market terms require another result. The price paid for an outcome can be large relative to its maximum remaining profit, particularly when that outcome trades near one. * Some templates may permit a fractional settlement or another treatment for an invalid, indeterminate, tied, postponed, cancelled, or otherwise exceptional outcome. A participant should not assume that an exceptional event will produce a refund, a 50/50 payout, or any other particular treatment unless the controlling market terms expressly provide for it. ## Resolution, ambiguity, and delay * Resolution depends on the applicable market terms, declared sources, and methodology. Events may be ambiguous, disputed, delayed, postponed, rescheduled, cancelled, abandoned, corrected, or reported inconsistently. A source may be unavailable, compromised, erroneous, revised, unclear, or published later than expected. A governing body, league, statistical agency, issuer, or other source may change its rules, formats, eligibility criteria, or interpretation of an outcome while a market is open. * The time an event appears to conclude, the end of trading, the applicable observation or determination time, the settlement submission, and the availability of proceeds are distinct. Settlement may be delayed while official facts are confirmed or the applicable terms are applied. Collateral remains committed during a delay, and the participant may be unable to use the position or expected proceeds elsewhere. * Postponement, cancellation, abandonment, a tie, a source conflict, or an indeterminate result may cause a delay or the treatment specified by the controlling market terms, which can differ by template. Unless the market terms expressly provide otherwise, participants should not assume that a formal challenge, appeal, or correction process will be available before or after settlement. * Once HyperCore applies settlement, balances are converted onchain. A later source correction, changed official determination, or discovery of an error does not automatically reverse that conversion. ## Source and methodology risk * A declared source is authoritative for purposes of the market terms, but that designation is not a representation that the source is infallible, that its result matches another source or a participant’s understanding of the event, or that its result reflects widely accepted public interpretations of an event. A source can experience a security compromise, outage, reporting error, delayed publication, retroactive correction, or disagreement within the source organization. A source may report preliminary and final values differently. * A methodology can also be affected by an incorrect market identifier, strike, date, time zone, observation window, template value, outcome mapping, source URL, data conversion, precision, or calculation. Automated or manual checks reduce certain risks but cannot guarantee that every deployment or resolution action is correct. * For price-based markets, the methodology may rely on Hyperliquid candles, a specified averaging window, and a defined calculation. Missing, delayed, abnormal, or disputed data can affect timing or result. For sports or other event markets, a named reporting source such as ESPN and the applicable market template may determine the treatment of wins, ties, postponements, cancellations, and corrections. * For a price-based market that references `xyz` candles, the strike or resolution value may be affected by `xyz` liquidity, trading activity, discovery bounds, market hours, price gaps, anomalous trades, manipulation, or an outage. A candle’s high, low, or close may be a genuine onchain value and still be economically unrepresentative. Averaging several observations reduces the effect of a single value but does not eliminate source-data, market-manipulation, or calculation risk. A very small difference around the stated strike can change the settlement from zero to one or from one to zero. * For sports and other reported events, relevant risks include stat corrections, protests, forfeits, disqualifications, overtime, shortened games, doubleheaders, participant withdrawal, venue or schedule changes, and differences between an apparent result and the result recognized by the declared source. The market terms, rather than a broadcast, scoreboard, news report, or another venue’s treatment, determine the `txyz` result. ## Liquidity and market-price risk * Liquidity may be limited or disappear, especially as uncertainty resolves or trading approaches its end. Bid-ask spreads can be wide, bid depth may be insufficient, orders may not fill, and a position may be difficult or impossible to close before trading ends. No person is obligated to provide liquidity. Participants should be prepared to hold a position through settlement even if they intended to exit earlier. * Trading may be halted, restricted, or ended before or after the underlying event appears to conclude. A halt or an interface, wallet, or network outage can prevent a participant from placing, changing, or cancelling an order while the event continues to develop or the market proceeds toward settlement. * Market prices can be affected by fees, liquidity, stale orders, wide spreads, position constraints, manipulation, rumors, incomplete information, and participants with different information, incentives, or hedging needs. A displayed price may be a midpoint, last trade, or other display convention and may not be executable. Changes in the perceived likelihood of an event may not produce a corresponding market-price change. * A price between zero and one may be interpreted as a market-implied probability, but that interpretation is approximate. It is not an objective probability or a consensus of all informed participants. Fees and spreads also mean that the price is not necessarily the participant’s breakeven probability. ## Information asymmetry * Other participants may possess, obtain, or act on information that is more accurate, timely, or complete than the information available to you. This may include participants with specialized expertise, superior data access, direct knowledge of the referenced activity, or greater ability to monitor source updates and onchain activity. Public reports may change rapidly, and apparently reliable information may be false, incomplete, or already reflected in the price. * Market prices can be influenced by manipulative or deceptive activity, a referenced market, or an external source. Surveillance, position constraints, market templates, averaging windows, and other controls cannot guarantee that manipulation, misuse of information, or anomalous activity will be prevented or detected before it affects trading or settlement. ## Collateral, technical, and third-party risk * Full collateralization eliminates leverage and liquidation from ordinary HIP-4 outcome positions, but it does not eliminate market, settlement, collateral-asset, protocol, custody, or technical risk. The quote or collateral asset may lose value, become illiquid, or experience transfer or redemption restrictions. * Hyperliquid, HyperCore, wallets, interfaces, networks, bridges, APIs, validators, authorized settlement accounts, data feeds, reporting sources, and other third parties may fail, become unavailable, operate with delay, or behave unexpectedly. A system failure can affect order placement, cancellation, market data, source retrieval, resolution, settlement, or access to proceeds. Onchain actions may be irreversible. * An outage affecting trade\[XYZ] does not necessarily halt HyperCore or other interfaces, and an outage affecting a participant does not pause the market. Any open source tooling provided by trade\[XYZ] or its affiliates with no endorsement such as the [Live Market Feed](/events/developer-resources/live-market-feed.md) is a convenience tool and is not the canonical source of market existence, terms, trading state, or settlement. ## Regulatory and access risk * The legal and regulatory characterization of Events, particular market subjects, interfaces, and participant activity can vary by jurisdiction and may be uncertain or change. A market may be halted, restricted, removed, or become unavailable because of legal, regulatory, policy, or operational developments. Such action may occur without providing the timing, liquidity, or economic result a participant expected. * You must not access or use Events where prohibited. The [Terms of Use](https://trade.xyz/terms) are the canonical source for eligibility, restricted jurisdictions, and other access conditions. * These disclosures are not exhaustive. They supplement the [General Disclaimer](/legal-and-disclaimers/general-disclaimer.md), each market’s specific terms and methodology, and the Terms of Use. --- # Agent Instructions This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com. ## Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the following URL with the `ask` and `goal` query parameters: ``` GET https://docs.trade.xyz/legal-and-disclaimers/events-risks-and-disclaimers.md?ask=&goal= ``` `ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. `goal` is what the user is ultimately trying to achieve, the reason they need the answer. Sharing it helps GitBook give you a better, more relevant answer. A goal is most helpful when it describes the outcome the user wants rather than restating the question. For example, with `ask=how do I create an API token`, a goal like `automate deployments from our CI pipeline` lets GitBook tailor the answer to that use case. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.